Stress test
A stress test applies real crisis windows to your current portfolio weights. It answers what would have happened to your holdings, as composed today, had they lived through the financial crisis or the COVID crash. A back-calculation, not a forecast.
- Fragile
- Across the tested crises the portfolio fell deeply and recovered slowly. Often a sign of concentration in a few positions or a single sector.
- Average
- The portfolio behaved roughly like a broad equity market in crises: marked setbacks, then recovery over several years.
- Solid
- Noticeably smaller declines than the broad market. Typical for portfolios holding bonds, gold or defensive sectors as a counterweight.
- Resilient
- Small losses and fast recovery across the tested windows. Check whether long-run return expectation was given up for it.
How it is calculated
Scenario result = Σ ( weight[position] × return[position, crisis window] )
Real periods are tested using the actual prices of your own positions. If a position has no history in the window, its weight is reported openly instead of silently set to zero.
- Financial crisis
- Sep 08 to Mar 09
- EU debt crisis
- Jul to Oct 11
- COVID crash
- Feb to Mar 20
- Rate shock
- Jan to Oct 22
What the number does not tell you
- Missing history flatters the result. An ETF launched in 2021 has no 2008 prices. If a scenario covers only 60 % of your weights, the result describes only those 60 %. Always check the reported coverage.
- The next crisis is none of the four. Each window has its own trigger: credit defaults, sovereign debt, a pandemic, a rate shock. A portfolio that survives all four is not immune to a fifth, unknown mechanism.
- Today's weights, yesterday's prices. The calculation assumes you already held this portfolio back then and did not sell. Both are assumptions, not observations.
- A positive result is not a promise. If a portfolio emerges from a crisis window in the black, that was down to the composition of that particular window. Nothing follows for the next crisis.
Related metrics
How Evergrova calculates it
The stress test page shows all four historical scenarios with the drawdown path, contributions by position and asset class, and the coverage figure. A factor shock additionally allows freely adjustable hypothetical moves.
Data basis: real crisis window returns applied to current weights; positions without history in the window are reported transparently.
View the demo portfolioCommon questions
What is a good resilience score?
Above 70 counts as resilient, below 40 as fragile. A high value is not a goal in itself: it is usually bought with a more defensive portfolio that carries a lower long-run return expectation.
Why does a scenario say "no data"?
Because none of your positions has prices in that window. That is an honest empty state rather than a result of 0 %. A portfolio of young ETFs simply cannot replay the financial crisis.
Stress test or maximum drawdown?
Maximum drawdown shows what your portfolio actually lived through. The stress test shows what it would have lived through. For young portfolios with no crisis in their own history, the stress test is the more informative figure.
Last reviewed: 2026-08-08