Deutsche Fassung
Risk & loss

Stress test

A stress test applies real crisis windows to your current portfolio weights. It answers what would have happened to your holdings, as composed today, had they lived through the financial crisis or the COVID crash. A back-calculation, not a forecast.

How robust is your portfolio?58.0points
Fragile
Across the tested crises the portfolio fell deeply and recovered slowly. Often a sign of concentration in a few positions or a single sector.
Average
The portfolio behaved roughly like a broad equity market in crises: marked setbacks, then recovery over several years.
Solid
Noticeably smaller declines than the broad market. Typical for portfolios holding bonds, gold or defensive sectors as a counterweight.
Resilient
Small losses and fast recovery across the tested windows. Check whether long-run return expectation was given up for it.

How it is calculated

Scenario result = Σ ( weight[position] × return[position, crisis window] )

Real periods are tested using the actual prices of your own positions. If a position has no history in the window, its weight is reported openly instead of silently set to zero.

Q4 sell-off
Oct to Dec 18
COVID crash
Feb to Mar 20
Rate shock
Jan to Oct 22
Yen carry unwind
Jul to Aug 24
Tariff shock
Feb to Apr 25

What the number does not tell you

  • Missing history flatters the result. An ETF launched in 2021 has no prices from the 2018 sell-off or the 2020 COVID crash. If a scenario covers only 60 % of your weights, the result describes only those 60 %. Always check the reported coverage.
  • The next crisis is none of the five. Each window has its own trigger: rate fears, a pandemic, a rate shock, a carry-trade unwind, tariffs. A portfolio that survives all of them is not immune to a new, unknown mechanism.
  • Today's weights, yesterday's prices. The calculation assumes you already held this portfolio back then and did not sell. Both are assumptions, not observations.
  • A positive result is not a promise. If a portfolio emerges from a crisis window in the black, that was down to the composition of that particular window. Nothing follows for the next crisis.

Related metrics

Maximum drawdownNot volatility, but the deepest decline actually endured.Value at risk and CVaRHow bad an ordinary bad day looks.Factor investingRecurring patterns that explain return differences between stocks.Correlation and diversificationHow closely two assets move together, from −1 to +1.

How Evergrova calculates it

The stress test page shows all historical scenarios with the drawdown path, contributions by position and asset class, and the coverage figure. A what-if calculator additionally plays through your own scenarios, such as a market crash or a rate shock.

Data basis: real crisis window returns applied to current weights; positions without history in the window are reported transparently.

View the demo portfolio

Common questions

What is a good resilience score?

Above 70 counts as resilient, below 40 as fragile. A high value is not a goal in itself: it is usually bought with a more defensive portfolio that carries a lower long-run return expectation.

Why does a scenario say "no data"?

Because none of your positions has prices in that window. That is an honest empty state rather than a result of 0 %. A portfolio of young ETFs simply cannot replay the financial crisis.

Stress test or maximum drawdown?

Maximum drawdown shows what your portfolio actually lived through. The stress test shows what it would have lived through. For young portfolios with no crisis in their own history, the stress test is the more informative figure.

Last reviewed: 2026-08-08

This text is general information. It is neither investment advice nor a recommendation. Metrics describe past periods and allow no conclusion about future performance.